Labour Market Impacts in a Tariff War with America
In November, when President Donald Trump announced his intentions to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States, the Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) took notice. Recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said these tariffs could affect employment, costing about 500,000 jobs.
Last night, the United States announced that it would levy a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods. Considering the unpredictable nature of the current American administration, tariffs could be increased or decreased depending on the hour of the day. Tariff amounts of either 10 or 25 percent, tariff length of several months or years, and finally, sectors that become the president’s focus, which could change on a whim —the impact on the labour market could be significant. Some economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent tariff scenario could contract the Canadian GDP, putting jobs across various sectors at risk.
The Trump administration will levy tariffs in the following sectors:
- Auto parts manufacturing
- Energy
- Chemical and plastic manufacturing
- Metals
- Consumer goods
- Machinery
Tariff Impacts
Dairy: The 25 percent tariff will affect Canadian milk, cheese and butter exports.
The manufacturing sector is an important sector for Durham Region. This sector includes companies that change materials or substances through chemical, mechanical, or physical processes to create new products. These products can be finished and ready for use or semi-finished, meaning they serve as raw materials for further manufacturing.
The manufacturing sector includes the assembly of the component parts of manufactured goods; the blending of materials; and the finishing of manufactured products by dyeing, heat-treating, plating and similar operations are also treated as manufacturing activities.
Cars and Car Parts: tariffs will impact finished vehicles and parts
Imports and Exports by Municipality
The following are the imports and exports by each municipality. The data does not show how much of either is imported from the United States or exported to the same. However, it does indicate the volume of goods transferred in this region.
Imports Exports
Import/Exports: Durham Region 2022 |
||
| Imports | Exports | |
| Ajax | $8,360,892,499 | $7,744,394,245 |
| Pickering | $8,851,714,192 | $10,591,460,024 |
| Oshawa | $10,132,383,480 | $8,486,115,852 |
| Whitby | 10,479,286,578 | $10,664,355,378 |
| Clarington | $7,774,513,661 | $7,114,525,421 |
| North Durham | $4,576,792,525 | $4,125,455,046 |
Data: Analyst
This data provides more information about Durham Region exports by municipality and sector. We can see the significant impact tariffs will have, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which includes food, chemicals, plastics and machine manufacturing.
Region Exports Selected Municipalities 2022
Data: Analyst
Unemployment
Durham Region’s unemployment rate — the DWA uses Oshawa CMA’s (Census Metropolitan Area; includes Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington) — has steadily decreased since unemployment was at a high of 8.5 percent in August 2024. In January 2025, the Oshawa CMA's unemployment rate was 7.4 percent, Ontario 7.7 percent, and Canada 7.1 percent. The tariffs could impact several local occupations: logistics, machine operators, process operators in manufacturing, and occupations in wholesale and retail trade.
Data: Analyst
Where Do We Go from Here?
Labour Market Disruptions
The federal government has noted the critical role of employment assistance and reskilling services delivered by provinces and territories, provided through the Labour Market Development Agreements (LMDAs). Locally, this means organizations like the Durham Workforce Authority with its pulse on the labour market, and collectively, the Durham Region Employment Services Consortium is the regional employment Service System Manager (SSM) overseeing the design and delivery of employment services across Durham region. The SSM includes a network of highly skilled Employment Services Providers who create meaningful connections between job seekers and employers.
The consortium comprises The Regional Municipality of Durham (as the lead agency), Durham College and Durham Workforce Authority. With extensive experience and expertise in employment and human services program implementation, consultation and system coordination, the consortium will provide funding, support and oversight for the region’s Employment Services network. A link to the SSM is included at the bottom of this blog.
Shop local as much as you can! Below are several links to local producers. Remember: agri-food products produced and available locally support healthy communities, provide job opportunities and diversify the economy. Local produce is also fresher.
As the tariffs begin, the DWA will track their impacts on Durham’s clusters and economic sectors.
The greatest challenge we will face in the next few weeks is planning for and living in uncertainty. Tariff uncertainty can affect forecasting and planning. So, events like this, keeping doors open to conversations and working together are critical.
https://www.durham.ca/en/employment-services/introduction.aspx
https://www.durham.ca/en/economic-development/
https://www.durhamfarmfresh.ca/
About the DWA:
The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, as do migration trends in and out, residents’ educational attainment, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board with hyper- local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don't hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.