Behind the Numbers: May 2026 – Labour Market Trends

Behind the Numbers is a monthly series from the Durham Workforce Authority that breaks down the latest labour market data and what it means for Durham Region.  This blog is informed by the May 2026 Employment by Industry Report and Labour Force Survey Report, which can be found here. 

In May 2026, Durham Region’s labour market continued to expand, with employment reaching its highest level in more than two years. Population growth, rising labour force participation, and strong performance in several key industries helped drive overall employment gains. At the same time, higher unemployment and uneven sector performance highlight the increasingly complex dynamics shaping the local workforce. This snapshot combines insights from the latest Labour Force Survey and Employment by Industry data to explore what is changing—and what it means for employers, jobseekers, and workforce planning across the region.

Key Highlights

  • Employment increased to 257,500, up 2,000 from the previous month and 16,800 year-over-year.
  • Unemployment Rate increased by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month to 8.5%, despite remaining 0.8 percentage points lower than May 2025.
  • Health Care & Social Assistance added 6,900 jobs compared to May 2025.
  • Manufacturing employment increased by 5,500 year-over-year.
  • Construction and Transportation & Warehousing each grew by 2,500 jobs year-over-year.
  • Accommodation & Food Services declined by 2,100 jobs year-over-year.
  • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services declined by 3,700 jobs year-over-year.

What’s Happening in the Labour Market

May’s labour market data presents a picture of continued growth, but also growing complexity. Employment increased by 2,000 positions compared to April and was up 16,800 jobs compared to the same month last year, reaching 257,500 employed residents across the Oshawa CMA. At the same time, the labour force expanded by 3,200 people over the month, while unemployment increased by 1,300 individuals. This pushed the unemployment rate to 8.5%, up from 8.2% in April.

These seemingly contradictory trends illustrate an important labour market reality: employment and unemployment can rise simultaneously when more people enter the labour force than there are jobs created during a given period.

Population growth continues to be a major driver of labour market activity. The Oshawa CMA population reached 410,300 in May, up 11,300 people from one year ago. As more residents enter the region, labour force participation and job search activity continue to increase.

This suggests Durham’s labour market remains fundamentally strong, but growing labour supply is creating increased competition for available jobs.

A Closer Look at What’s Driving Change

Industry-level data reveals where employment growth is occurring and where challenges persist.

Health Care & Social Assistance remained one of Durham’s strongest-performing sectors, adding 6,900 jobs compared to May 2025. Manufacturing also continued its strong recovery, gaining 5,500 jobs year-over-year, while Construction and Transportation & Warehousing each added 2,500 jobs. These gains reflect continued demand for workers in sectors tied to population growth, infrastructure investment, housing development, and supply chain activity.

Construction growth is particularly notable given Durham Region’s rapid population expansion and ongoing housing needs. Similarly, growth in transportation and warehousing reflects the region’s strategic location within the Greater Toronto Area and continued demand for logistics and distribution services.

Not all sectors experienced growth, however. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services declined by 3,700 jobs compared to the previous year, while Accommodation & Food Services declined by 2,100 jobs. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing also experienced a year-over-year decline of 1,500 jobs.

These trends suggest that while essential and goods-producing industries continue to expand, some professional and consumer-oriented sectors remain more vulnerable to economic uncertainty and changing spending patterns.

The labour market is not growing evenly across all industries; instead, growth is increasingly concentrated in sectors that support Durham Region’s expanding population and economy.

Looking Beyond the Month-to-Month Changes

While monthly changes provide useful signals, longer-term trends offer a clearer picture of labour market conditions.

Looking beyond May’s results, the broader trend remains positive. Employment has increased by 16,800 positions over the past year, while the employment rate rose from 60.3% in May 2025 to 62.8% in May 2026. Participation has also increased from 66.5% to 68.6% over the same period. These improvements indicate that more residents are working and more are actively engaged in the labour market than one year ago.

At the same time, the labour force has expanded significantly. Durham Region’s growing population is bringing more workers into the labour market, which can place upward pressure on unemployment rates even during periods of employment growth.

The combination of rising employment, growing participation, and increasing labour force size points to a labour market that continues to attract and engage workers while adapting to rapid population growth.

In this context, modest increases in unemployment should not necessarily be interpreted as labour market weakness, but rather as evidence of a growing and evolving regional economy.

What This Means for Employers and Jobseekers

For employers:

Employers in health care, manufacturing, construction, transportation, and other growth sectors are likely to continue experiencing recruitment challenges. Demand for skilled workers remains strong, particularly in occupations requiring specialized training, certifications, or technical expertise. Partnerships with workforce development organizations, training providers, and employment services will continue to play an important role in meeting talent needs.

For jobseekers:

Employment opportunities remain strongest in sectors connected to infrastructure, health care, manufacturing, and logistics. However, rising labour force participation means jobseekers may face increased competition, particularly in industries experiencing slower growth or contraction. Individuals who focus on transferable skills, training opportunities, and in-demand occupations may be best positioned to take advantage of emerging opportunities.

The labour market continues to create jobs, but success increasingly depends on aligning skills and experience with where demand is growing.

Looking Ahead

Durham Region’s labour market continues to be shaped by population growth, economic development, and changing employer needs. As more residents enter the workforce, the region’s ability to connect workers with emerging opportunities will become increasingly important.

Continued growth in health care, manufacturing, construction, and transportation suggests that many of Durham’s strongest employment opportunities remain concentrated in sectors supporting long-term regional development. Monitoring both labour force indicators and industry-level trends will remain essential to understanding where opportunities are emerging and where workforce challenges may develop.

Aligning workforce planning, skills development, and economic growth strategies with these trends will help ensure Durham Region remains competitive, resilient, and inclusive.

The Durham Workforce Authority will continue to track and share these insights to support informed decision-making across the region.