Behind the Numbers: Labour Market Trends – February 2026
Behind the Numbers is a monthly series from the Durham Workforce Authority that breaks down the latest labour market data and what it means for Durham Region. This blog is informed by the February 2026 Employment by Industry Report and Labour Force Survey Report. In February 2026, Durham Region’s labour market showed stable growth alongside emerging pressures, with sector-level changes and labour force shifts shaping overall conditions. This snapshot highlights what’s changing, and what it means for employers, jobseekers, and workforce planning across the region
Key Highlights
- Employment: 254,100, a decrease of 1,700 month-over-month but an increase of 7,400 year-over-year
- Unemployment: 20,300 an increase of 500 month-over-month
- Participation Rate: 67.3% , a drop of 0.5%
- Population: 407,500
- Major sector shifts across retail, health care, and professional services
What’s Happening in the Labour Market
February reflects a labour market that is adjusting after a period of stronger growth, with several key indicators moving in different directions. Employment declined slightly, unemployment increased, and participation dropped, indicating a modest shift in overall labour market conditions. While these changes are not large, they suggest that the pace of growth seen in late 2025 has begun to ease.
At the same time, the labour market remains stable overall, with employment levels still higher than one year ago and no evidence of widespread decline across the labour market. Sector-level data helps explain the broader labour force trends observed in February. This indicates that Durham’s labour market is stabilizing rather than weakening, with short-term pressures emerging within a still-growing system.
- Growth in health care and trades is helping to sustain overall employment levels
- Declines in retail and professional services are contributing to rising unemployment
- Participation declines suggest changes in workforce engagement
These dynamics highlight the interconnected nature of labour market indicators. Changes in sector demand can influence employment levels, which in turn affect unemployment and participation rates.
For example, job losses in large sectors such as retail can have a noticeable impact on overall unemployment, while growth in specialized sectors may not fully offset those losses if the required skills differ.
A Closer Look at What’s Driving Change
Sector-level trends provide important context for understanding the broader labour force shifts.
Growth in health care and skilled trades continues to support overall employment levels, reflecting sustained demand tied to population growth and service delivery. At the same time, declines in large sectors such as wholesale and retail trade and professional services are contributing to rising unemployment. This dynamic highlights an important structural reality: not all job losses and job gains are interchangeable. Workers displaced from one sector may not immediately transition into another, particularly where skills, experience, or qualifications differ. Participation trends add another layer to this picture. The decline in participation suggests that some individuals are stepping out of the labour force entirely, whether due to education, caregiving responsibilities, or challenges in finding suitable employment.
Together, these factors point to a labour market that is not contracting, but becoming more complex—where growth, displacement, and disengagement can occur at the same time.
Looking Beyond the Month-to-Month Changes
While monthly changes provide useful signals, longer-term trends offer a clearer view of labour market health. Over the past year, employment has increased, supported by steady population growth and expanding labour supply. Over a two-year period, employment gains have been even more pronounced, reflecting a region that continues to grow and attract workers.
Population growth remains a key driver. As more individuals enter Durham Region, both labour supply and demand increase. This contributes to rising employment levels, but can also result in higher unemployment as more individuals actively participate in the job market. This reinforces a key insight: rising unemployment in a growing region does not necessarily indicate decline, it can reflect increased participation and labour market expansion.
What This Means for Employers and Jobseekers
For employers:
While labour supply is increasing, sector-specific pressures remain. Employers in high-demand sectors, particularly health care, construction, and logistics, may need to adapt recruitment strategies, including wages, scheduling flexibility, and training pathways, to remain competitive. At the same time, employers in sectors experiencing decline may have greater access to available talent.
For jobseekers:
Opportunities remain strongest in sectors experiencing sustained growth, particularly those tied to essential services and infrastructure. However, jobseekers in sectors facing contraction may encounter increased competition and may need to consider reskilling or transitioning into in-demand fields.
The current labour market is not defined by a lack of opportunity, but by where those opportunities are concentrated.
Looking Ahead
Durham Region’s labour market will continue to be shaped by the interaction between population growth, sector demand, and workforce participation.
Monitoring how these factors evolve, particularly participation levels and sector-specific employment trends, will be critical in determining whether current pressures are temporary or indicative of longer-term shifts. Understanding these dynamics will be key to aligning workforce strategies with where the labour market is heading, not just where it has been.
The Durham Workforce Authority will continue to track and share these insights to support informed decision-making across the region.