American Tariffs and Durham Labour Market Impacts
In November, when United States President Donald Trump announced his intentions to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States, the Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) took notice. Recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said these tariffs could affect Ontario’s employment, costing about 500,000 jobs. In a recent article, Andreas Schotter, Professor of International Business at the Ivey Business School, similarly stated, “The numbers are stark. A 10 percent tariff scenario would trigger an estimated 2.4 percentage point contraction in the Canadian GDP over two years, putting approximately 500,000 jobs across various sectors at risk.” (Ivey Communications, 2025)
Depending on several factors – tariff amounts of either 10 or 25 percent, tariff length of several months or years, and finally, sectors – the impact on the labour market could be significant. Given Durham Region’s heavily integrated auto manufacturing supply chain as well as its energy, plastic manufacturing and consumer goods/wholesale trade sectors, the proposed tariffs would impact Durham’s labour market.
When Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey released the December unemployment numbers, economists weighed in on the national unemployment rate, which was better than expected. Nationally, Canadian employment jumped 91,000 jobs in December — the most significant increase in almost two years — and with firm underlying details including a lower unemployment rate. (RBC Economics, 2025)
Durham Region’s unemployment rate — the DWA uses Oshawa CMA’s (Census Metropolitan Area; includes Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington) — has steadily decreased since a high of 8.5 percent in August. In January 2024, Oshawa’s CMA unemployment rate was lower than national and provincial unemployment rates, just over one percent higher than the national unemployment rate in December 2024. Overall, Oshawa CMA’s unemployment rate is higher than a year ago and subject to labour market shocks from external forces.
Unemployment Rate by Month, Canada, Ontario, Oshawa CMA, Both Sexes, 15 yrs and older
| Canada | Ontario | Oshawa CMA | |
| Month | Percentage | Percentage | Percentage |
| Jan-24 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Feb-24 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Mar-24 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| Apr-24 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| May-24 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| Jun-24 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| Jul-24 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Aug-24 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| Sep-24 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| Oct-24 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 8.7 |
| Nov-24 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| Dec-24 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0017-01, Table 14-10-0378-01
Tariff Targets, Sectors and Employment
It is expected that the Trump administration will levy tariffs in the following sectors:
- Auto parts manufacturing
- Energy
- Chemical and plastic manufacturing
- Metals
- Consumer goods
- Machinery sectors
All these sectors are important to the Durham Region. However, the auto parts sector is particularly concerning as it has a heavily integrated supply chain with the United States. Tariffs would impact employment and the final cost of vehicles potentially pushing down manufacturing employment and knock-on effects in automotive sales occupations.
The following chart shows the employment by industry in Oshawa CMA:
Employment by industry, Oshawa CMA, annual (x 1,000), January 10, 2025
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0384-01
Uncertainty is the Forecast
The greatest challenge is planning for and living in uncertainty. The previous Trump administration was unpredictable and his new administration promises much the same. Uncertainty can reduce business investments and consumer spending leading to economic downturns. Tariff uncertainty can affect forecasting and planning. (Cleroux, 2024)
Economists fear manufacturing layoffs and the potential for a recession. What is uncertain is the depth and length of a recession. Given a proposed 25 percent across-the-board tariff, the spectre of recession harkens back to the great recession of 2008 when unemployment hit double digits. The uncertainty can result in reduced investments in innovation, infrastructure, and staffing, which cycles back to Canada’s ongoing productivity challenges on a global stage.
BDO Economics shared this chart of provincial exposure to U.S. Exports. It shows all provinces’ [tariffs] exposure. Ontario has strong exposure to motor vehicle parts and consumer goods. (Douglas Porter, 2024)
Provincial Exposure to US Exports
Sector Job Losses
The Trump administration has threatened 10 to 25 percent tariffs. The 25 percent [tariff] scenario could triple Canada’s job losses to 1.5 million positions. This would also cause severe supply chain disruption, permanent structural changes, and a GDP contraction exceeding 2.4 percent. This would require aggressive monetary policy intervention which in turn would raise Canadians’ inflation rates. (Ivey Communications, 2025)
In 2023, Ontario’s exports totalled $226 billion, representing over one-fifth of the provincial economy. More than three-quarters of Ontario’s international trade is with the U.S. Trade with the U.S. represents 39 percent of the provincial economy. (Eisen, 2025)
The chart below shows the concentration of employment by occupation in the Oshawa CMA. The tariffs could impact several local occupations: logistics, machine operators, process operators in manufacturing, and occupations in wholesale and retail trade.
Employment by occupation, Oshawa CMA
Source: Statistics Canada: Table: 14-10-0430-01
Where Do We Go from Here
As the Trump administration takes office, the DWA will track the tariff impacts on Durham’s clusters and economic sectors. The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, migration trends in and out, educational attainment of residents, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board with hyper-local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The LMP report draws on data from:
- Statistics Canada data, Labour Force Survey
- DWA Custom Data Purchases from Statistics Canada and other sources
- Persons with Disabilities Survey
- 2SLGBTQI+ Survey
- Jobs First Durham
- Employment Ontario
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don’t hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.