Archive
Employment Gains and Losses
Leave a CommentAccording to Statistics Canada’s The Daily, Canada’s employment fell by approximately 33,000 jobs. The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) has examined the employment gains and losses by the Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).
The following table shows the employment by thousands in Oshawa CMA from November 2024 to March 2025.
Chart One: Employment characteristics, Oshawa Census Metropolitan Area
| Employment: Persons in Thousands | Nov-24 | Dec-24 | Jan-25 | Feb-25 | Mar-25 |
| Goods-producing sector | 44 | 44.7 | 45.1 | 44.9 | 44.2 |
| Utilities | 5.2 | 6 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6 |
| Construction | 19.3 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23.1 |
| Manufacturing | 18.6 | 18.1 | 17.3 | 15.7 | 14.3 |
| Services-producing sector | 195.7 | 195 | 198.4 | 201.8 | 203.1 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 41 | 41 | 39.6 | 37.7 | 36.7 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 11.6 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.9 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | 20.8 | 20.9 | 22.2 | 24.9 | 26.6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 22.8 | 24.9 | 27.8 | 28.2 | 28.3 |
| Educational services | 22 | 21.7 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 23.7 |
| Health care and social assistance | 29.9 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 26.2 | 25.9 |
| Information, culture and recreation | 11.2 | 11 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12 |
| Accommodation and food services | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13 | 15 | 15.1 |
| Public administration | 11.2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.6 |
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0467-01
Employment Gains
The sectors highlighted in blue show an increase in employment. The Services-producing sector added about 7400 jobs since November 2024. Similar gains were in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector and the Professional Scientific and Technical Services Sector.
Employment Losses
The sectors highlighted in yellow indicate a decrease in employment. Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, Healthcare, Accommodation, and Food Services saw the most significant decreases.
Chart Two: Month-over-Month Gains and Losses
| Employment: Persons in Thousands | Feb-25 | Mar-25 | Change |
| Utilities | 6.6 | 6 | -600 |
| Construction | 22 | 23.1 | +1100 |
| Manufacturing | 15.7 | 14.3 | -1400 |
| Services-producing sector | 201.8 | 203.1 | +1300 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 37.7 | 36.7 | -1000 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 11 | 10.9 | -100 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | 24.9 | 26.6 | +1700 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 28.2 | 28.3 | +100 |
| Educational services | 23.7 | 23.7 | 0 |
| Health care and social assistance | 26.2 | 25.9 | -300 |
| Information, culture and recreation | 12.2 | 12 | -200 |
| Accommodation and food services | 15 | 15.1 | +100 |
| Public administration | 10.1 | 10.6 | +500 |
Chart Three: Total Gains and Losses
| Total sector employment | |
| Gains | Loss |
| 4800 | 3600 |
Oshawa had a gain of approximately 1200 jobs month over month. Most jobs were in the Service or Finance sectors. The DWA will track this as the tariffs begin to impact the labour market.
Jobs First Durham Data
Recent data from Jobs First Durham highlights a concerning trend in the local labour market. Between November 2024 and March 2025, the number of active job postings declined by 33%, while the number of companies hiring fell by 27%. This reinforces the broader employment downturn reflected in Statistics Canada’s data, suggesting that businesses in the region are scaling back their hiring efforts.
Additionally, during this same period, both the average and median posted wages experienced declines of 4% and 3%, respectively, indicating potential wage stagnation or increased competition for fewer available positions. These shifts underscore the challenges facing job seekers and employers in Durham’s evolving job market.
About the DWA:
The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) is a community-based not-for-profit. We work hard to meet the voices of the sectors, ensure good stewardship of public funds and provide reliable research focused on local labour market information (LMI).
The DWA collaborates with community stakeholders from business, labour, education and training, community services, and municipal, provincial, and federal governments.
The DWA hosts a free tool, Jobs First Durham community job board, that aggregates postings from over 50 unique websites to help job seekers and employers.
Jobs First Durham offers career development tools, including a job board, career calculator, career library, and resume and cover letter builders. Jobs First Durham provides reports and analytics, including labour market insights and labour force and skill demand reports.
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, please don’t hesitate to contact the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.
Employment Looking Forward
Leave a CommentIn November, when President Donald Trump announced his intentions to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States, the Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) took notice. Today, the United States is poised to impose tariffs on Canada that include automotive and other goods. The US has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on:
- All Canadian goods
- An added 25 percent on steel and aluminum imports
- 10 percent on energy imports.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated that these tariffs could impact employment, potentially resulting in the loss of around 500,000 jobs. Given the unpredictability of the US government, tariff amounts of either 10 or 25 percent, tariff lengths of several months or years, and the sectors that become the president’s focus, which could change on a whim, the impact on the labour market could be significant.
Workers at Risk
The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) is focused on the labour market impacts of the proposed tariffs. Durham has approximately 4500 workers in the transportation and equipment manufacturing sector, which includes motor vehicles, shipbuilding and aerospace manufacturing. Durham also has workers in steel and aluminum manufacturing and machine shops. It is estimated that there are 2600 workers in this sector. The DWA is tracking sector changes as these tariffs roll out.
Layoffs
Economists and the Premier have suggested that job losses in Ontario may occur as tariffs are implemented. If you believe you might be impacted, don’t wait until you receive a layoff notice to act. There are services and supports available to help you transition to other employment or training opportunities; most of these supports are free or have low-cost registration fees.
Lakeview Hub
The DWA operates an employment support hub at 799 Douglas Street, Oshawa, on Wednesdays from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. You can meet with an employment counsellor and register for a free Jobs First Durham account. Drop-ins welcome, come for a coffee.
Jobs First Durham
If you need your resume updated and want to search for jobs in Durham, Jobs First Durham is a free job search portal that aggregates Durham Region jobs from 50 job sites, making it more efficient to search for local jobs. You can find the top skills local employers need, and the site has a free resume and cover letter builder.
Academic Upgrading
If you have education that is more than ten years old, you may need a refresher before transitioning to other employment or training. The Literacy Network of Durham Region coordinates academic upgrading in Durham Region, and you can visit them every Wednesday at the Lakeview Hub. You can explore e-learning options through E-learning Ontario, part-time programs at Durham College, and programs offered by Durham Continuing Education.
Library Resources
Grab a library card to access free resources like LinkedIn Learning. Most libraries offer this service, and your library card is all you need. Go get one today.
Please see links below:
Lakeview Hub
Jobs First Durham
https://durhamworkforceauthority.ca/jobs-first-durham/
Literacy Network of Durham Region
Elearning Ontario
https://courses.elearningontario.ca/d2l/loginh/
Durham College
https://www.durhamcollege.ca/academic-faculties/professional-and-part-time-learningDurham
Continuing Education
https://www.ddsb.ca/en/programs-and-learning/adult-and-continuing-education.aspx
Service System Manager
https://www.durham.ca/en/employment-services/introduction.aspx
About the DWA:
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don’t hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Labour Market Impacts of Auto Tariffs
Leave a CommentThe United States proceeded with its anticipated imposition of a 25% tariff on all vehicles manufactured outside the United States. This will have an immediate impact on Durham’s automotive industry.
Despite changes to the sector over the last 20 years, the automotive sector is an important labour market sector.
Chart One shows the number of employers by employee size range. Most automotive employers have at least 20 employees.
Chart One: Durham Region Automotive Employers by Employee Size Range
| NAICS Code | Description | 20-49 Employees | 50-99 Employees | 100-199 Employees | 200-499 Employees | 500+ Employees | Total |
| 336110 | Automobile and light-duty motor vehicle manufacturing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 336211 | Motor vehicle body manufacturing | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 336212 | Truck trailer manufacturing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 336370 | Motor vehicle stamping | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Source: OMAFRA Analyst
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Candice Laing noted Wednesday that the Canadian and American auto sectors are heavily intertwined. Automotive parts can cross international borders up to eight times before a vehicle is finally assembled, and tariffs could add thousands of dollars to the cost of that vehicle, she said in a statement.
Automotive Manufacturing Employment Durham Region
There are approximately 4495 individuals employed in the Transportation and Equipment Manufacturing sector.
Chart Two: Employed by NAIC: Durham Region
| 336 Transportation equipment manufacturing | 4495 |
| 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing | 1770 |
| 3362 Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing | 115 |
| 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing | 1530 |
| 3364 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing | 1040 |
| 3365 Railroad rolling stock manufacturing | 15 |
| 3366 Ship and boat building | 15 |
| 3369 Other transportation equipment manufacturing | 0 |
custom data provided by Durham Workforce Authority
The tariff impact will jeopardize these jobs and impact incomes in the region. Selected wages for the automotive sector are in chart three.
Chart Three: Motor Vehicle Employment Income, Selected Occupations Durham Region
| Median Income | |
| Supervisors motor vehicle assembly | $73,500 |
| Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling | $70,500 |
| Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers | $39,200 |
custom data provided by the Durham Workforce Authority
Labour Market Disruptions
The federal government has recognized the critical role of employment assistance and reskilling services delivered by provinces and territories, which are provided through the Labour Market Development Agreements (LMDAs).
Locally, the Durham Workforce Authority has a pulse on the labour market, and collectively, the Durham Region Employment Services Consortium is the regional Employment Service System Manager (SSM) overseeing the design and delivery of employment services across the Durham region. The SSM includes a network of highly skilled Employment Services Providers who create meaningful connections between job seekers and employers.
The consortium forms the Regional Municipality of Durham (as the lead agency), Durham College and Durham Workforce Authority. With extensive experience and expertise in implementing employment and human services programs, consultation, and system coordination, the consortium will provide funding, support, and oversight for the region’s Employment Services network. A link to the SSM is included at the bottom of this blog.
The DWA will track their impacts on Durham’s clusters and economic sectors.
The greatest challenge we will face in the coming weeks is planning for and navigating uncertainty. Tariff uncertainty can affect forecasting and planning. So, events like this, keeping doors open to conversations and working together, are critical.
https://www.durham.ca/en/employment-services/introduction.aspx
https://www.durham.ca/en/economic-development/
About the DWA:
The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, as do migration trends in and out, residents’ educational attainment, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board with hyper-local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, please don’t hesitate to contact the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.
Embracing Neurodiversity: Unlocking Talent in the Workforce
Leave a CommentNeurodiversity Celebration Week is an opportunity to recognize the immense value that neurodivergent individuals bring to the workplace. Across Durham Region and beyond, businesses are discovering that fostering an inclusive workforce isn’t just the right thing to do—it’s a smart business strategy.
The Strengths of a Neurodiverse Workforce
Neurodivergent individuals, including those with autism, ADHD, dyslexia, and other cognitive differences, bring unique skills and perspectives to the workplace. These strengths include:
- Innovative Thinking: Many neurodivergent employees excel at problem-solving and thinking outside the box.
- Strong Attention to Detail: Individuals with autism, for example, often thrive in roles that require precision and pattern recognition.
- Creative Problem-Solving: Dyslexic individuals frequently have strong spatial reasoning and creative problem-solving abilities.
- Deep Focus: Some neurodivergent employees can maintain exceptional focus on tasks they are passionate about.
The Business Case for Neurodiversity
Employers who embrace neurodiversity benefit from increased productivity, enhanced innovation, and improved workplace culture. Research shows neurodiverse teams are often more effective at complex problem-solving and innovation. Companies that actively recruit and support neurodivergent employees report higher retention rates and employee satisfaction.
Despite these benefits, neurodivergent individuals face significant employment barriers. In Canada:
- Only 59% of working-age adults with disabilities are employed, compared to 80% of those without disabilities. (Azrieli Foundation)
- The employment rate for Canadians with conditions such as ADHD, dyslexia, autism, and intellectual disabilities drops to approximately 26%. (Azrieli Foundation)
- In 2022, 1.5% of Canadians aged 15 and over (about 456,630 individuals) reported having a developmental disability. (StatsCan)
- 5.6% of Canadians aged 15 and older reported having a learning disability. (StatsCan)
Creating an Inclusive Workplace
To unlock the full potential of a neurodiverse workforce, businesses can take several key steps:
- Flexible Hiring Practices: Adjust job descriptions and interview processes to accommodate different communication and thinking styles.
- Workplace Accommodations: Small changes, such as noise-cancelling headphones or flexible work hours, can have a significant impact.
- Training & Awareness: Educate managers and employees on neurodiversity to create a more inclusive culture.
- Strengths-Based Roles: Match employees with tasks that align with their skills and interests to maximize success.
Durham Region Leading the Way
Employers, community organizations, and workforce development agencies work together in the Durham Region to promote inclusive hiring practices. Organizations such as Durham Region Autism Services and the Neurodivergent Infinity Network of Educators (NINE) provide resources to support neurodivergent individuals and their employers. By championing neurodiversity, we can build a stronger, more innovative local economy that benefits everyone.
As we celebrate Neurodiversity Celebration Week, let’s recognize the value of diverse minds in the workplace and continue to create spaces where everyone can thrive.
Labour Market Impacts in a Tariff War with America
Leave a CommentIn November, when President Donald Trump announced his intentions to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States, the Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) took notice. Recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said these tariffs could affect employment, costing about 500,000 jobs.
Last night, the United States announced that it would levy a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods. Considering the unpredictable nature of the current American administration, tariffs could be increased or decreased depending on the hour of the day. Tariff amounts of either 10 or 25 percent, tariff length of several months or years, and finally, sectors that become the president’s focus, which could change on a whim —the impact on the labour market could be significant. Some economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent tariff scenario could contract the Canadian GDP, putting jobs across various sectors at risk.
The Trump administration will levy tariffs in the following sectors:
- Auto parts manufacturing
- Energy
- Chemical and plastic manufacturing
- Metals
- Consumer goods
- Machinery
Tariff Impacts
Dairy: The 25 percent tariff will affect Canadian milk, cheese and butter exports.
The manufacturing sector is an important sector for Durham Region. This sector includes companies that change materials or substances through chemical, mechanical, or physical processes to create new products. These products can be finished and ready for use or semi-finished, meaning they serve as raw materials for further manufacturing.
The manufacturing sector includes the assembly of the component parts of manufactured goods; the blending of materials; and the finishing of manufactured products by dyeing, heat-treating, plating and similar operations are also treated as manufacturing activities.
Cars and Car Parts: tariffs will impact finished vehicles and parts
Imports and Exports by Municipality
The following are the imports and exports by each municipality. The data does not show how much of either is imported from the United States or exported to the same. However, it does indicate the volume of goods transferred in this region.
Imports Exports
Import/Exports: Durham Region 2022 |
||
| Imports | Exports | |
| Ajax | $8,360,892,499 | $7,744,394,245 |
| Pickering | $8,851,714,192 | $10,591,460,024 |
| Oshawa | $10,132,383,480 | $8,486,115,852 |
| Whitby | 10,479,286,578 | $10,664,355,378 |
| Clarington | $7,774,513,661 | $7,114,525,421 |
| North Durham | $4,576,792,525 | $4,125,455,046 |
Data: Analyst
This data provides more information about Durham Region exports by municipality and sector. We can see the significant impact tariffs will have, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which includes food, chemicals, plastics and machine manufacturing.
Region Exports Selected Municipalities 2022
Data: Analyst
Unemployment
Durham Region’s unemployment rate — the DWA uses Oshawa CMA’s (Census Metropolitan Area; includes Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington) — has steadily decreased since unemployment was at a high of 8.5 percent in August 2024. In January 2025, the Oshawa CMA's unemployment rate was 7.4 percent, Ontario 7.7 percent, and Canada 7.1 percent. The tariffs could impact several local occupations: logistics, machine operators, process operators in manufacturing, and occupations in wholesale and retail trade.
Data: Analyst
Where Do We Go from Here?
Labour Market Disruptions
The federal government has noted the critical role of employment assistance and reskilling services delivered by provinces and territories, provided through the Labour Market Development Agreements (LMDAs). Locally, this means organizations like the Durham Workforce Authority with its pulse on the labour market, and collectively, the Durham Region Employment Services Consortium is the regional employment Service System Manager (SSM) overseeing the design and delivery of employment services across Durham region. The SSM includes a network of highly skilled Employment Services Providers who create meaningful connections between job seekers and employers.
The consortium comprises The Regional Municipality of Durham (as the lead agency), Durham College and Durham Workforce Authority. With extensive experience and expertise in employment and human services program implementation, consultation and system coordination, the consortium will provide funding, support and oversight for the region’s Employment Services network. A link to the SSM is included at the bottom of this blog.
Shop local as much as you can! Below are several links to local producers. Remember: agri-food products produced and available locally support healthy communities, provide job opportunities and diversify the economy. Local produce is also fresher.
As the tariffs begin, the DWA will track their impacts on Durham’s clusters and economic sectors.
The greatest challenge we will face in the next few weeks is planning for and living in uncertainty. Tariff uncertainty can affect forecasting and planning. So, events like this, keeping doors open to conversations and working together are critical.
https://www.durham.ca/en/employment-services/introduction.aspx
https://www.durham.ca/en/economic-development/
https://www.durhamfarmfresh.ca/
About the DWA:
The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, as do migration trends in and out, residents’ educational attainment, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board with hyper- local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don't hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.
Invest Durham Film and Television Career Fair
Leave a CommentRegister Now for the Invest Durham Film and Television Career Fair!
If you are interested in the Film and Television Industry and are looking to break into an exciting career in production, special effects, or behind-the-scenes roles, Don’t miss the Invest Durham Film and Television Career Fair!
Date: Monday, March 17, 2025
Time: 11:00 A.M. – 1:30 P.M.
Location: Durham College / Ontario Tech University Campus Recreation and Wellness Centre
Film and television production is booming with new studios opening across Canada and the Greater Toronto Area! From scriptwriting to post-production, the demand for skilled professionals is higher than ever. This career fair is your chance to connect with industry experts, discover job opportunities, and explore pathways into this exciting field.
Whether you’re a student exploring career options or a professional looking to transition into the entertainment industry, this event is for you!
Participating Organizations:
- International Cinematographers Guild
- Directors Guild of Canada
- Ontario Creates
- Writers Guild of Canada
- Durham Region International Film Festival
- Invest Durham
- Toronto International Student Animation Festival
- Rogers TV
Register here https://lnkd.in/gej9GYNF now and take the first step toward your film and TV career!
Canada Tariff Finder
Leave a CommentAs imports and exports change rapidly, Durham Region businesses will find this Tariff Finder resource a great place to find information. The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) found this tool that can assist Durham businesses with tariff information.
The Canada Tariff Finder enables Canadian businesses to check import or export tariffs for specific goods and markets, with a focus on countries with which Canada has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It provides up-to-date custom tariff information for these countries. It gives the current tariff rate for the specific goods being searched and for later years.
The tool can help local businesses compare tariffs between products or countries to find options.
The tool can also compare tariffs for up to three countries or products. It simplifies this search by suggesting products that match the keyword(s) or Harmonized System (HS) code entered.
As things change quickly, this is an essential tool for Durham businesses to get accurate, up-to-date information.
The Canada Tariff Finder results from collaboration between the Business Development of Canada (BDC), Export Development Canada (EDC) and the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service of Global Affairs Canada.
About the DWA:
The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, migration trends in and out, educational attainment of residents, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data was extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board using hyper-local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don’t hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.
American Tariffs and Durham Labour Market Impacts
Leave a CommentIn November, when United States President Donald Trump announced his intentions to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States, the Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) took notice. Recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said these tariffs could affect Ontario’s employment, costing about 500,000 jobs. In a recent article, Andreas Schotter, Professor of International Business at the Ivey Business School, similarly stated, “The numbers are stark. A 10 percent tariff scenario would trigger an estimated 2.4 percentage point contraction in the Canadian GDP over two years, putting approximately 500,000 jobs across various sectors at risk.” (Ivey Communications, 2025)
Depending on several factors – tariff amounts of either 10 or 25 percent, tariff length of several months or years, and finally, sectors – the impact on the labour market could be significant. Given Durham Region’s heavily integrated auto manufacturing supply chain as well as its energy, plastic manufacturing and consumer goods/wholesale trade sectors, the proposed tariffs would impact Durham’s labour market.
When Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey released the December unemployment numbers, economists weighed in on the national unemployment rate, which was better than expected. Nationally, Canadian employment jumped 91,000 jobs in December — the most significant increase in almost two years — and with firm underlying details including a lower unemployment rate. (RBC Economics, 2025)
Durham Region’s unemployment rate — the DWA uses Oshawa CMA’s (Census Metropolitan Area; includes Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington) — has steadily decreased since a high of 8.5 percent in August. In January 2024, Oshawa’s CMA unemployment rate was lower than national and provincial unemployment rates, just over one percent higher than the national unemployment rate in December 2024. Overall, Oshawa CMA’s unemployment rate is higher than a year ago and subject to labour market shocks from external forces.
Unemployment Rate by Month, Canada, Ontario, Oshawa CMA, Both Sexes, 15 yrs and older
| Canada | Ontario | Oshawa CMA | |
| Month | Percentage | Percentage | Percentage |
| Jan-24 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Feb-24 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Mar-24 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| Apr-24 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| May-24 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| Jun-24 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| Jul-24 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Aug-24 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| Sep-24 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| Oct-24 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 8.7 |
| Nov-24 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| Dec-24 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0017-01, Table 14-10-0378-01
Tariff Targets, Sectors and Employment
It is expected that the Trump administration will levy tariffs in the following sectors:
- Auto parts manufacturing
- Energy
- Chemical and plastic manufacturing
- Metals
- Consumer goods
- Machinery sectors
All these sectors are important to the Durham Region. However, the auto parts sector is particularly concerning as it has a heavily integrated supply chain with the United States. Tariffs would impact employment and the final cost of vehicles potentially pushing down manufacturing employment and knock-on effects in automotive sales occupations.
The following chart shows the employment by industry in Oshawa CMA:
Employment by industry, Oshawa CMA, annual (x 1,000), January 10, 2025
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0384-01
Uncertainty is the Forecast
The greatest challenge is planning for and living in uncertainty. The previous Trump administration was unpredictable and his new administration promises much the same. Uncertainty can reduce business investments and consumer spending leading to economic downturns. Tariff uncertainty can affect forecasting and planning. (Cleroux, 2024)
Economists fear manufacturing layoffs and the potential for a recession. What is uncertain is the depth and length of a recession. Given a proposed 25 percent across-the-board tariff, the spectre of recession harkens back to the great recession of 2008 when unemployment hit double digits. The uncertainty can result in reduced investments in innovation, infrastructure, and staffing, which cycles back to Canada’s ongoing productivity challenges on a global stage.
BDO Economics shared this chart of provincial exposure to U.S. Exports. It shows all provinces’ [tariffs] exposure. Ontario has strong exposure to motor vehicle parts and consumer goods. (Douglas Porter, 2024)
Provincial Exposure to US Exports
Sector Job Losses
The Trump administration has threatened 10 to 25 percent tariffs. The 25 percent [tariff] scenario could triple Canada’s job losses to 1.5 million positions. This would also cause severe supply chain disruption, permanent structural changes, and a GDP contraction exceeding 2.4 percent. This would require aggressive monetary policy intervention which in turn would raise Canadians’ inflation rates. (Ivey Communications, 2025)
In 2023, Ontario’s exports totalled $226 billion, representing over one-fifth of the provincial economy. More than three-quarters of Ontario’s international trade is with the U.S. Trade with the U.S. represents 39 percent of the provincial economy. (Eisen, 2025)
The chart below shows the concentration of employment by occupation in the Oshawa CMA. The tariffs could impact several local occupations: logistics, machine operators, process operators in manufacturing, and occupations in wholesale and retail trade.
Employment by occupation, Oshawa CMA
Source: Statistics Canada: Table: 14-10-0430-01
Where Do We Go from Here
As the Trump administration takes office, the DWA will track the tariff impacts on Durham’s clusters and economic sectors. The DWA creates an annual plan supplying helpful information for community planning. Next month, the DWA will release its annual Labour Market Plan (LMP).
The plan focuses on the following:
- Durham Region demographics change, migration trends in and out, educational attainment of residents, and changes in employers in the local area by employee size and 3-digit NAICs.
- Enhanced Jobs First Durham (JFD) data extracted from the DWA’s boutique job board with hyper-local information.
- An update on Employment Ontario data.
The LMP report draws on data from:
- Statistics Canada data, Labour Force Survey
- DWA Custom Data Purchases from Statistics Canada and other sources
- Persons with Disabilities Survey
- 2SLGBTQI+ Survey
- Jobs First Durham
- Employment Ontario
The DWA provides just-in-time custom labour market information and often conducts custom fee-for-service research. If you are interested in local data, don’t hesitate to get in touch with the DWA.
The Province of Ontario partially funds the DWA to supply Labour Market Information (LMI) to the Region of Durham.
Written by: Heather McMillan, Executive Director, Durham Workforce Authority
Heather’s expertise is developing strong local community labour markets and conducting industry research supported by innovative projects. Heather is a Toronto Sector Skills Academy Metcalf Fellow and was recently awarded her Certified Workforce Development Professional (CWDP) certification from the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals.
Navigating Opportunities in 2025 – Durham Region’s Labour Market Outlook
Leave a CommentWith the dawn of 2025, Durham Region’s labour market is poised to build on the successes of the past year while tackling emerging challenges. The region’s focus on innovation and adaptability will be essential in navigating a rapidly changing economic landscape.
Healthcare and education are expected to remain central pillars of growth, with demand for skilled professionals such as registered nurses, educators, and administrators projected to rise further. Investments in training and development will be key to meeting these demands and ensuring a steady supply of qualified talent. Additionally, the professional services and utilities sectors will likely continue their upward trajectory, driven by competitive wages and strong demand for specialized skills.
One of the critical priorities for 2025 will be addressing persistent disparities in wages and opportunities across sectors. While average wages have increased, sectors such as retail and manufacturing still lag, highlighting the need for targeted policies to promote equitable growth. Encouragingly, the focus on full-time and permanent roles aligns with job seeker preferences, indicating progress in matching supply with demand.
Job seekers are expected to maintain high engagement with job search platforms, building on the record interactions seen in 2024. However, better awareness of growth sectors and promoting transferable skills will be essential in guiding individuals toward high-demand roles. The continued emphasis on foundational skills such as communication, customer service, and adaptability will remain critical in preparing the workforce for future opportunities.
As Durham Region embarks on 2025, collaboration and innovation will be the cornerstones of success. By fostering an inclusive, adaptable, and forward-looking labour market, the region can position itself as a leader in economic resilience and workforce development. With a shared commitment to growth and opportunity, Durham is ready to face the challenges and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
Call for Nominations for the DWA Board of Directors
Leave a CommentCall for Board Nominations
The DWA focuses on labour market research and workforce development initiatives in Durham Region.
Board Member Recruitment and Selection
The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) is a non-profit organization governed by a community-representative Board of Directors. The board meets quarterly, and Directors are asked to serve on one committee, volunteering their time and expertise on workforce development issues. Each Director is expected to be a liaison between the community and the Board. Typically, the meetings are held online. As a “consensus” decision-making Board, we encourage open dialogue from all Directors.
The Durham Workforce Authority (DWA) is a community-based not for profit. We work hard to convene the voices of the sectors, ensure good stewardship of public funds and to provide reliable research focused on local labour market information (LMI).
The DWA works with community stakeholders from business, labour, education and training, community services and municipal, provincial and federal governments. As you can appreciate, over twenty years of being a reliable partner in the local community has resulted in some very deep ties with our many community partners and the DWA is seen as a key link in those partnerships in our region.
Volunteer with Us
- Make a Difference: Influence workforce strategies and policies that impact our region’s economic growth and job opportunities.
- Lead Initiatives: Guide and oversee projects that support local businesses, job seekers, and educational institutions.
- Expand Your Network: Connect with professionals, community leaders, and organizations committed to workforce development.
- Develop Skills: Enhance your leadership and strategic planning skills while contributing to meaningful community projects.
Who We Are Looking For
- Experienced Leaders: Professionals with a background in business, education, human resources, or public administration.
- Community Advocates: Individuals passionate about enhancing workforce opportunities and addressing local needs.
- Strategic Thinkers: Those with a vision for innovative solutions and effective workforce planning.
What You’ll Do
Attend quarterly board meetings, attend one internal committee (Finance, Governance, Recruitment), and contribute to annual planning. Collaborate with other board members and stakeholders to develop and implement workforce strategies. Advocate for workforce initiatives within the community.
Recruitment & Selection
A Recruitment Committee, appointed by the DWA Board of Directors, identifies gaps in representation, targets applicants with the needed skills, knowledge, experience or connections, requests and discusses nominations, reviews application submissions, conducts interviews and makes recommendations to the Board on Director selection. New Directors are then appointed through a motion of the Board.
If you are interested in joining the Board of Directors, please get in touch with admin@durhamwa.ca for more information.
You may also view our Board Recruitment Package, which outlines the commitment requirements and qualifications for Directors.
Thank you for being so interested!